01 / DIVERSIFICATION
Buyers need alternatives
Asian refiners and utilities cannot eliminate Middle Eastern supply, but they can reduce concentration risk by adding more U.S. crude and LNG to the mix.
THE ENERGY MAP IS BEING REDRAWN
WHY
NOW?
The war with Iran and instability around the Strait of Hormuz are forcing Asian buyers to rethink where their energy comes from. The United States is emerging as a more strategically important source of oil and gas—not necessarily because every American barrel is cheapest at the dock, but because reliable supply outside the world’s most dangerous energy chokepoint can be more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
THE SUPPLY SHIFT
MIDDLE EAST
→
ASIA
That traditional route depends heavily on the Strait of Hormuz. Conflict, shipping risk, insurance costs, delays, and potential closures change the economics of every cargo.
UNITED STATES
→
ASIA
American crude and LNG provide buyers with diversification, scale, transparent markets, and supply that avoids Hormuz entirely.
01
A STRUCTURAL SHOCK
Energy security is becoming as important as price.
For decades, Asian economies optimized energy procurement around cost, proximity, and long-standing Middle Eastern supply relationships. The Iran conflict has exposed the vulnerability in that model. When tankers face attack, traffic slows, insurance premiums rise, delivery schedules become uncertain, and governments worry about strategic reserves, the lowest quoted barrel may no longer be the lowest-cost barrel in practice.
This is not simply a temporary oil-price trade. It is a reminder that supply reliability has economic value—and that buyers will pay for diversification when a critical route becomes politically or militarily fragile.
THE CHOKEPOINT
Asia carries most of the Hormuz risk.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint. In the first half of 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that 89% of the crude oil and condensate passing through Hormuz was destined for Asian markets. China, India, Japan, and South Korea alone accounted for roughly three-quarters of those flows.
LNG exposure is also concentrated in Asia. Qatar’s exports and other Persian Gulf gas shipments depend on the same narrow waterway, making the conflict relevant not only to crude oil but also to electricity generation, industrial demand, and heating across the region.
Sources: U.S. EIA — World Oil Transit Chokepoints; U.S. EIA — LNG flows through Hormuz.
89%Estimated share of Hormuz crude and condensate flows destined for Asia in the first half of 2025.
74%Share going to China, India, Japan, and South Korea combined.
83%Share of LNG moving through Hormuz that went to Asian markets in 2024.
AMERICA’S NEW ROLE
The United States is exporting far more energy.
America has moved from energy scarcity to energy abundance. U.S. LNG exports rose from roughly 0.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2016 to 15.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2025. Then, as Hormuz disruptions tightened global supply, total U.S. petroleum exports reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in April 2026—15% above the previous monthly record.
02 / SCALE
America can respond
Large production, deep capital markets, growing export terminals, and established Gulf Coast infrastructure make the United States one of the few suppliers capable of materially increasing global flows.
03 / RECORD FLOWS
The shift is visible now
Asia imported a record 63.6 million barrels of U.S. crude in May 2026 as buyers sought cargoes that were not dependent on Hormuz transit.
Sources: U.S. EIA — record petroleum exports; U.S. EIA — ten years of U.S. LNG exports; Reuters — record Asian imports of U.S. crude.
THE KEY DISTINCTION
Not always cheaper.
Potentially cheaper after risk.
U.S. energy will not always win on headline spot price or shipping distance. But the true delivered cost of energy includes more than the commodity itself. It includes marine insurance, security premiums, rerouting, delays, inventory buffers, financing costs, and the possibility that a cargo does not arrive when needed. Once those risks are included, American supply can become more attractive even when its quoted price is higher.
COMMODITY PRICE+ SHIPPING+ INSURANCE+ DELAY RISK+ SUPPLY SECURITY
THE WILDCATTERS OPPORTUNITY
A geopolitical shock is accelerating an existing U.S. energy trend.
The United States was already becoming a larger energy exporter. The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risk are accelerating the strategic value of American production, services, infrastructure, and energy security. Wildcatters is designed to identify the public companies positioned to benefit from that shift—without assuming the market will move in a straight line.
Explore the Wildcatters research